So just in case you’re not familiar with Wired‘s Chris Anderson’s Long Tail theory, here’s a rundown. The idea is that the global marketplace as facilitated by the web is changing consumer behaviour in a major way. (Don’t let me lose you while this former economics student geeks out with some graphs.)

The classic demand curve that we might learn about in Econ101 looked like what you see labeled as Industry here:

In this experience, the majority of people find themselves in the leftmost part of the demand curve, meaning that the area below the curve is bigger. This basically means a few players get the most attention – something that defines the traditional purchase experience. Fine.

The Long Tail theory suggests, instead, that rather than having a relatively small amount of activity happening under the right hand side of the demand curve, this new way of experiencing the global market – see the Netflix curve – results in the equivalent area to the Industry model going way farther to the right.

In nerd terms? The demand curve is getting flatter by the day.

In human terms? We’re taking advantage of the gazillion choices available to us, each one defining our unique purchasing experience.

Now, despite heavy evangelization of this theory over the last couple of years, some Harvard types are coming out with an opposing theory. HBS professor Anita Elberse underwent some serious analytical examination and is suggesting that, rather than seeing the web extend the tail of the demand curve, our purchase behaviours indeed remain similar, and the big guys may in fact even be experiencing growth due to their web presence.Elberse is ultimately suggesting that, no matter the opportunities available, consumer behaviour as we know it is consistent. She’s saying, no matter that we have endless options, none of us are interested in researching a gazillion types of clips to pin back our daughters’ hair or investigating how to take care of our vintage Vespas – we’re ultimately social creatures who enjoy sharing experiences with like-minded others. And we ultimately rely on a few key experts to share that information. Those experts may no longer be the ones marketers once knew, but – to speak clearly – not every participant in this new medium holds the same power over its audience.

So what do we do with this?

Get back to basics. Start listening. Figure out your own audience’s demand curve – are they indeed “rugged individualists” who want to lead their own way, or are they more interested in learning from their peers and favourite bloggers. Identify the relevant influencers where applicable. Become their big hit. Think about new opportunities and analyze against traditional ones. Understand where you fit in and how your customers relate to their new experience.

How do you see consumer behaviour changing as media opportunities do?